Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
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- Create Date：2021-05-08 08:54:21
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Dan Ariely
- ISBN：0062018205
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Summary
Why do our headaches persist after we take a one-cent aspirin but disappear when we take a fifty-cent aspirin？
Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup？
When it comes to making decisions in our lives， we think we're making smart， rational choices。 But are we？
In this newly revised and expanded edition of the groundbreaking New York Times bestseller， Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways。 From drinking coffee to losing weight， from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner， we consistently overpay， underestimate， and procrastinate。 Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless。 They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational。
Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup？
When it comes to making decisions in our lives， we think we're making smart， rational choices。 But are we？
In this newly revised and expanded edition of the groundbreaking New York Times bestseller， Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways。 From drinking coffee to losing weight， from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner， we consistently overpay， underestimate， and procrastinate。 Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless。 They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational。
Reviews
Srikanth
，
An entertaining read about the foibles and the rationalisations that we make whenever we purchase something。 It is a short book and tells the stuff in story book format， does not go into details and all。So it is a good intro sort of book into our cognitive biases。
Faisal Chairul
，
Buku ini adalah buku bertema behavioral science/economics keempat yang gw baca setelah Thinking， Fast and Slow （TFaS）， Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics dan Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health， Wealth， and Happiness。 Di antara keempat buku-buku tersebut， gw akan menempatkan buku ini dan Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health， Wealth， and Happiness sebagai entry level buat calon pembaca yang penasaran akan topik ini。Buat gw pribadi gak bisa dipungkiri memang ketika membaca buku Buku ini adalah buku bertema behavioral science/economics keempat yang gw baca setelah Thinking， Fast and Slow （TFaS）， Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics dan Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health， Wealth， and Happiness。 Di antara keempat buku-buku tersebut， gw akan menempatkan buku ini dan Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health， Wealth， and Happiness sebagai entry level buat calon pembaca yang penasaran akan topik ini。Buat gw pribadi gak bisa dipungkiri memang ketika membaca buku ini tidak banyak hal baru yang gw dapatkan， karena mostly pembahasan dalam buku ini sudah pernah dibahas sama komprehensifnya oleh Daniel Kahneman di buku Thinking， Fast and Slow dan Richard Thaler di buku Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics。 Terlebih gw termasuk di antara orang-orang yang menjadikan TFaS sebagai 'kitab' rujukan ilmu behavioral science/economics， sementara Thaler juga telah menceritakan seluk beluk perkembangan ilmu ini dalam buku Misbehaving。 Walaupun begitu gw tetap memberikan rating tinggi untuk buku ini karena secara susunan sangat bagus。 Setiap bab dibuka dengan pemantik， kemudian di bagian isi disuguhkan dengan pemaparan eksperimen-eksperimen yang dilakukan dan kaitannya dengan teori dan diakhiri dengan kesimpulan singkat dan juga sedikit disinggung pemantik bab selanjutnya。Dalam buku ini， Dan Ariely menekankan pentingnya menyadari kelemahan kita， kalo dalam berperilaku sering irasional dan predictable。 Daripada mengelak atau denial （misalnya tetap berpegang teguh pada ilmu ekonomi konvensional dalam membuat budgeting atau perumusan kebijakan publik）， ada baiknya kita menerima ketidakrasionalan tersebut sehingga ke depannya dalam menyusun rencana， misalnya rencana keuangan， kita melandaskan pikiran bukan lagi ke pandangan ilmu ekonomi konvensional， yang menganggap ketika dalam membuat keputusan keuangan kita selalu bisa berpikir dan bertindak rasional。Berikut beberapa highlight yang gw catat yang gak dipungkiri cukup menggelitik。Chapter 1: The Truth of Relativity- One aspect of relativity that constantly trips us up: we not only tend to compare things with one another but also tend to focus on comparing things that are easily comparable-and avoid comparing things that cannot be compared easily- how to avoid being trapped in relativity: control the circles around us and change our focus from narrow to broadChapter 2: The Fallacy of Supply and Demand- imprinted: once we buy a new product at a particular price， we become anchored to that price。- arbitrary coherence: although initial prices are 'arbitrary'， once these prices are established in our minds they will shape not only present prices but also future prices- behavior herding: we assume that something is good （or bad） on the basis of other people's behavior and our own actions follow suit- self-herding: we believe something is good （or bad） on the basis of our own previous behavior， which then along the time we feel more strongly that we're acting on the basis of our preferences => tersentil banget sih。 repot emang kalo udah ngerasa paling bener dan tertutup sama 'kritik'， makanya penting buat admitting kalo kita pribadi pun rentan terhadap bias， terus bangun challenge network atau psychological safety di antara orang-orang yang kita percaya。 Kedua konsep ini dipinjam dari bukunya Adam Grant， Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know。Chapter 3: The Cost of Zero Cost- loss aversion: when something is free！ we forget the downside。 Free！ gives us such an emotional charge that we perceive what being offered as immensely more valuable than it really is。 There's no visible possibility of loss when we choose a free！ itemChapter 4: The Cost of Social Norms- Two different world: one when social norms prevail and the other where market norms make the rules。 Once market norms enters our considerations the social norms depart- introducing market norms into social exchanges violates the social norms and hurt the relationships。 Once this type of mistake has been committed， recovering a social relationship is difficult- when a social norms collides with a market norms， the social norms goes away for a long time -> social relationships are not easy to reestablish。 Once the social norm is trumped by a market norm it will rarely returnChapter 7: The High Price of Ownership- three irrational quirks about ownership: （1） we fall in love with things we already have; （2） we focus on what we may lose rather than what we may gain; and （3） we assume other people will see the transaction from the same perspectives as we doownership also has peculiarities: we begin to feel ownership even before we own somethingChapter 9: The Effect of Expectations- the effect of expectations: if you tell people front that something might be distasteful， the odds are good that they will end up agreeing with you， not because their experience tells them so but because of their expectations- expectations shape stereotypes: our own behavior can be influenced by stereotypes and the activation of stereotypes can depend on our current state of mind and how we view ourselves at the momentChapter 11: The Context of Our Character: Part 1- maintaining superego matters: as we grow up in society we internalize the social virtues。 This internalization leads to the development of the superego。 In general， the superego is pleased when we comply with society's ethics and unhappy when we don't- reasons that we frequently dishonest: the problem is that our internal honesty monitor is active only when we contemplate big transgressions。 For the little transgressions we don't even consider how these actions would reflect on our honesty and so our superego stays asleep- without the superego's help， monitoring and managing of our honesty， the only defense we have against the kind of transgression is a rational cost-benefit analysis， and it doesn't seem to have much influence on dishonestyChapter 13: Beer and Free Lunches- a simple life advice: when going to a restaurant， it's a good idea to plan your order before the waiter approaches you and stick to it。 Restaurant owners should ask their consumers to write out orders privately so that no consumer will be influenced by the orders of his/her companions。 Consumers pay a lot of money for the pleasure of dining out 。。。more
Hakan
，
sürekli irrasyonel davrandığımızı ancak bu irrasyonel davranışlarımızın son derece öngörülür （belli şartlar altında sistematik olarak aynı irrasyonel hataları tekrarladığımızı） olduğumuzu anlatmaya çalışan güzel bir kitap。 Kitabın her bir bölümünde， ilgili konuya ilişkin ağırlıklı olarak yazarın kendisi tarafından gerçekleştirilen sosyal deneylerin ilginç sonuçları aktarılıyor。 Davranışsal iktisada ilgi duyanların mutlaka okumasını tavsiye edeceğim bir kitaptır。
Noschi
，
One of the few behavioral economics books I can definitely recommend
James K Worswick
，
Enjoyed reading every chapter of this book。
Jennifer Kaehms
，
In Predictably Irrational - Dan Ariely highlights how humans have hidden forces that shape our decisions。 The best way to check what is shaping your decision is what is your reference point for this decision？Are you moving from an expensive city （SF to ATX） and comparing home values， are you comparing similar people you are dating， are you following an old medical procedure？ Whatever you are doing verify why you are doing it the way you are doing it。
Abhishek Trivedi
，
Amazing books with some read ideas。 It shows how and why we think in the ways we think in our daily lives。
Juan Carlos
，
Un enfoque de cuán débiles somos tomando decisionesSiempre ha sido importante tomar decisiones， en cada momento de nuestra vista lo estamos haciendo， tomamos una decisión u otra， pensando que nos basamos en un proceso racional， meditado， incluso cuantificado。 Suele ser así， sin duda， pero en ocasiones se nos escapa entender y ser conscientes del contexto irracional y sus múltiples variantes que influyen en nuestras decisiones。 Dan Ariely nos lleva de lleno a ese enfoque real， aunque no tan obvio Un enfoque de cuán débiles somos tomando decisionesSiempre ha sido importante tomar decisiones， en cada momento de nuestra vista lo estamos haciendo， tomamos una decisión u otra， pensando que nos basamos en un proceso racional， meditado， incluso cuantificado。 Suele ser así， sin duda， pero en ocasiones se nos escapa entender y ser conscientes del contexto irracional y sus múltiples variantes que influyen en nuestras decisiones。 Dan Ariely nos lleva de lleno a ese enfoque real， aunque no tan obvio， de cómo nos vemos influenciados irracionalmente en el momento que creemos tener el control de nuestro proceso de toma de decisiones。 。。。more
E。 Keskin
，
Karar alırken yönlendirildiğimizi biliyorduk。 Bunu bir kez de bu alanda yetkin bir profesörden duymak iyi oldu。 Davranışsal iktisadın klasik iktisatla savaşında kim kazanır bilemem ama insanın merkezde olduğu her alanda mantıkla beraber mantıksızlık， düşüncelerle birlikte duygular， doğrularla yanlışlar da olacaktır diye düşünüyorum。 İlk kabul etmemiz gereken， insanın sürekli doğru yapan ya da onu seçen bir canlı olmadığı。Bu arada kitapta yer alan bir çok sosyal deney var。 Bu deneylerin matematik Karar alırken yönlendirildiğimizi biliyorduk。 Bunu bir kez de bu alanda yetkin bir profesörden duymak iyi oldu。 Davranışsal iktisadın klasik iktisatla savaşında kim kazanır bilemem ama insanın merkezde olduğu her alanda mantıkla beraber mantıksızlık， düşüncelerle birlikte duygular， doğrularla yanlışlar da olacaktır diye düşünüyorum。 İlk kabul etmemiz gereken， insanın sürekli doğru yapan ya da onu seçen bir canlı olmadığı。Bu arada kitapta yer alan bir çok sosyal deney var。 Bu deneylerin matematik modellerle gerçekleştirilerek tekrar sosyal ve psikolojik sonuçlara ulaşılma süreçleri bana hayli ilginç geldi。 Demek istediğim ölçümden anladığı somut hususlar olanlara。 Bu kitapla anlaşılıyor ki soyut her şey de doğru metodoloji seçilerek ölçülebilirmiş。 Örneğin "Beni ne kadar seviyorsun？" sorusuna kollarımızı iki yana açarak "Bu kadar！" deriz ya。 Korkarım yazarımız istese sevgiyi de birimlere dönüştürüp ölçebilir rahatlıkla。。。Akademik kitap önyargısı veren ancak kişisel gelişim üslubuyla yazılmış bu kitap， kolay okunur， ilginç bir kitap。 Benzer konudaki "Dürtme" adlı kitabı okuduktan sonra son yıldız kararımı vereceğim。 。。。more
Jurgita Krukonyte
，
The book is mostly about the author performing behavioral experiments on his students。 Even though the conclusions were interesting， but a lot of experiments didn't look extensive enough to draw any conclusions at all。 It could have been so much more interesting read if backed by more data and research。 The book is mostly about the author performing behavioral experiments on his students。 Even though the conclusions were interesting， but a lot of experiments didn't look extensive enough to draw any conclusions at all。 It could have been so much more interesting read if backed by more data and research。 。。。more
Fairport Public Library
，
October 2008， Holly W， NonFiction
Wei
，
An interesting read on psychology behind irrational decision making。 It doesn't capture the full complexity， nuances etc。 that often exist in decision making but I guess that would be a separate topic altogether。 An interesting read on psychology behind irrational decision making。 It doesn't capture the full complexity， nuances etc。 that often exist in decision making but I guess that would be a separate topic altogether。 。。。more
Norton
，
This was an ok book on behavioral economics。 The author walks through many experiments he conducted to demonstrate irrationalities， motivations， etc。 While some of the info was useful I was hoping there would be more discussion on how to overcome or work around some of these irrationalities rather than just explaining their existence。
Ozkan Aksit
，
Bastan cikarici seylerle basa cikmak yerine， bastan cikarici olaylar baslamadan kacmak gerekir。 Ornek; ondan seks sirasinda hayir demesini beklemek yerine yaninda prezervatif tasimasini saglamak:）
Billy Jacob
，
Awesome！ I love it。 You can join in NovelStar writing contest with a theme "WEREWOLVES" Prices are amazing！https://author。starlight。ink/essay/in。。。 （PC）http://app。novelstar。top/index/index/。。。 or email any of the following editors;hardy@novelstar。topjoye@novelstar。toplena@novelstar。top Awesome！ I love it。 You can join in NovelStar writing contest with a theme "WEREWOLVES" Prices are amazing！https://author。starlight。ink/essay/in。。。 （PC）http://app。novelstar。top/index/index/。。。 or email any of the following editors;hardy@novelstar。topjoye@novelstar。toplena@novelstar。top 。。。more
Dominik
，
Podobne jako mysleni rychle pomale， ale horsi
Andreea Chiuaru
，
Plina de insight-uri utile， desi cred ca m-ar fi impresionat putin mai mult daca nu citeam inainte "Thinking fast and slow" a lui Kanehman。 Plina de insight-uri utile， desi cred ca m-ar fi impresionat putin mai mult daca nu citeam inainte "Thinking fast and slow" a lui Kanehman。 。。。more
Barbara
，
Um livro muito legal sobre testes！ Diversos experimentos para demonstrar como não temos pensamentos tão lógicos quanto imaginamos， adorei e gostei especialmente do final。
Dominik Hudec
，
Some interesting and counter-intuitive experiments here， but the generalisations of the results to large scale problems/concepts were not particularly well-supported， and sometimes even superficial。
Tara Franz
，
Loved this book！ It's a number of concepts I have read in other books but I enjoy Ariely's writing style more。 This one was especially inspiring for ideas on creating helpful money concepts。 Really loved this。 Loved this book！ It's a number of concepts I have read in other books but I enjoy Ariely's writing style more。 This one was especially inspiring for ideas on creating helpful money concepts。 Really loved this。 。。。more
Jonathan
，
As someone who has a strong interest in human behaviour， I found this book informative and entertaining。 The author presents his scientific analysis in an engaging and sometimes humorous way。 The only reason I didn't give five stars is because he sometimes goes on tangents， discussing how his analysis could be applied more broadly to national economic policy。 I'm someone who finds the areas of economics and finance utterly boring， so these tangents were frustrating。 As someone who has a strong interest in human behaviour， I found this book informative and entertaining。 The author presents his scientific analysis in an engaging and sometimes humorous way。 The only reason I didn't give five stars is because he sometimes goes on tangents， discussing how his analysis could be applied more broadly to national economic policy。 I'm someone who finds the areas of economics and finance utterly boring， so these tangents were frustrating。 。。。more
Will Y
，
4。0/5。0。 Pretty interesting。 I’m sure a lot of this was new when this book came out。 I just read this book too late。
Gautham
，
The book meticulously details in on multiple experiments conducted by the author to prove how our brain is always biased when we take decisions。 But I felt his pool of participants for these experiments were almost always limited to Ivy school boys and perhaps missed out on drawing realistic conclusions。 Nevertheless was a fascinating read being my first book on behavioral economics！
Juna
，
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 - Để đánh giá một thứ， chúng ta so sánh nó với những thứ khác - Khi được nhận đồ miễn phí， lý trí của chúng tay bay đi đâu mất- Mức giá đầu tiên chúng ta nghe thấy sẽ ảnh hưởng lên mức giá chúng ta sẵn sàng trả sau này - Chúng ta phóng đại giá trị những thứ mình sở hữu- Những trải nghiệm của chúng ta bị định hình bởi các kì vọng。- Cách mọi người phản ứng với yêu cầu của bạn phụ thuộc vào chuyện liệu yêu cầu đó thuộc về phạm trù xã hội hay thị trường。- Mọi người rất dễ dối trá， nhưng không đến mứ - Để đánh giá một thứ， chúng ta so sánh nó với những thứ khác - Khi được nhận đồ miễn phí， lý trí của chúng tay bay đi đâu mất- Mức giá đầu tiên chúng ta nghe thấy sẽ ảnh hưởng lên mức giá chúng ta sẵn sàng trả sau này - Chúng ta phóng đại giá trị những thứ mình sở hữu- Những trải nghiệm của chúng ta bị định hình bởi các kì vọng。- Cách mọi người phản ứng với yêu cầu của bạn phụ thuộc vào chuyện liệu yêu cầu đó thuộc về phạm trù xã hội hay thị trường。- Mọi người rất dễ dối trá， nhưng không đến mức gian xảo。- Mặt lý tính， sáng suốt biết ta nên làm gì， nhưng mặt bản năng， không kiểm soát được thường chiếm quyền và làm điều ngược lại。- Mọi người bị ám ảnh với việc có nhiều lựa chọn， kể cả nó có hại cho họ về lâu về dài。 。。。more
Elizabeth
，
This book was recommended by one of my business mentors as a way to gain greater insight into why people do what they do。 I picked it up because I wanted to understand， from a marketing perspective， how we decide to buy -- or not buy -- a product or service。 I got exactly what I was after in the first couple of chapters。 Then I found myself pleasantly engrossed in Ariely's subsequent experiments， which dealt with everything from the power of arousal to human beings' tendency toward dishonesty。I This book was recommended by one of my business mentors as a way to gain greater insight into why people do what they do。 I picked it up because I wanted to understand， from a marketing perspective， how we decide to buy -- or not buy -- a product or service。 I got exactly what I was after in the first couple of chapters。 Then I found myself pleasantly engrossed in Ariely's subsequent experiments， which dealt with everything from the power of arousal to human beings' tendency toward dishonesty。I appreciated Ariely's accessible writing style and his limited use of jargon。 This could have been a dense， dull read， but it wasn't。 My interest in behavioral economics continues to grow， and PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is an excellent addition to my library。 。。。more
Otis Chandler
，
Absolutely loved this book and all the examples it gives of how we think we are making rational decisions， when in fact we aren't。 The book concludes by saying many of these irrational decisions we make are entirely predictable （thus the title of the book）， and thus we should as a society do better to factor them in。 I would have loved more suggestions of how this could be done， but that was beyond the scope of the book。 This book seems to be a must for anyone studying or dealing with pricing。 W Absolutely loved this book and all the examples it gives of how we think we are making rational decisions， when in fact we aren't。 The book concludes by saying many of these irrational decisions we make are entirely predictable （thus the title of the book）， and thus we should as a society do better to factor them in。 I would have loved more suggestions of how this could be done， but that was beyond the scope of the book。 This book seems to be a must for anyone studying or dealing with pricing。 Which is all of us given we all buy things。 For instance， the advice that "given three choices， most people will take the middle choice" is simultaneously obvious and also very useful。 "humans rarely choose things in absolute terms。 We don’t have an internal value meter that tells us how much things are worth。 Rather， we focus on the relative advantage of one thing over another， and estimate value accordingly。"I loved the chapter on social norms vs market norms。 Also stuff that seems obvious， but I hadn't ever put it into that mental model， and seeing it that way is very interesting。 Good reminder that money isn't the best motivator， but if you go with social norms， you have to keep it entirely that way （eg Burning Man barter economy）。"we live simultaneously in two different worlds—one where social norms prevail， and the other where market norms make the rules。" 。。。 "when a social norm collides with a market norm， the social norm goes away for a long time。 In other words， social relationships are not easy to reestablish。"Another gem was the study that showed that how when we are in an emotionally charged state， we make consistently worse decisions。 It would be great if my smart devices （Garmon， Oura， Fitbit， Apple Watch， etc） could detect this and give me a warning somehow。 "every one of us， regardless of how “good” we are， underpredicts the effect of passion on our behavior。 In every case， the participants in our experiment got it wrong。 Even the most brilliant and rational person， in the heat of passion， seems to be absolutely and completely divorced from the person he thought he was。"Another interesting study compared the same coffee served in a mediocre setting with that served in a upscale setting， and found the same coffee tasted significantly better in the upscale setting。 Good to remember - the entire experience matters， design matters， the little details matter。 I loved the study on food ordering， which showed "When people order food and drinks， they seem to have two goals: to order what they will enjoy most and to portray themselves in a positive light in the eyes of their friends。" Thus if people order out loud， they are more likely to order different things from those before them， and if they order blindly， more likely to order the same things。 This is why blind voting on hiring and anything else where groupthink is so key is important。 Also， I can't wait for restaurants to have barcode ordering and checkout :） 。。。more
Penelope Espinoza Hallett
，
I really enjoyed this book， it was well written and easy to read。
Youthing1111
，
A worth-to-read book that introduces me to the concept of economic behavior。 This book gives me a lot of understanding about how irrational humans can be and make me have insight into human behavior。
Ivanka Voytsekhovych
，
Вай， яка кльова книжка！ Нахапала собі цікавих інсайтів про поведінку людей， інформацію про те， чим ми керуємося， і знайшла кілька способів покращити власні рішення。 Чи знали ви， що， замовляючи в ресторані， ми схильні обирати те， що не обрали люди за нашим столиком？ Навіть якщо це не те， що нам смакуватиме， ми ірраціонально прагнемо виділитися і вразити наших супутників。 Або що наліпка "безкоштовно" вимикає наше раціональне мислення і схиляє до економічно невигідних покупок？ Або те， що плацебо зд Вай， яка кльова книжка！ Нахапала собі цікавих інсайтів про поведінку людей， інформацію про те， чим ми керуємося， і знайшла кілька способів покращити власні рішення。 Чи знали ви， що， замовляючи в ресторані， ми схильні обирати те， що не обрали люди за нашим столиком？ Навіть якщо це не те， що нам смакуватиме， ми ірраціонально прагнемо виділитися і вразити наших супутників。 Або що наліпка "безкоштовно" вимикає наше раціональне мислення і схиляє до економічно невигідних покупок？ Або те， що плацебо здатне допомагати так само， як і операція？ Ні， не пігулки， а， бляха， операція！ Словом， це все дуже цікаво。 Окреме дякую автору за легкий іронічний стиль， такий далекий від академічного。 。。。more
Nikhila57
，